Box Office Insights: Upcoming Releases and Predictions
December 19, 2025
By Shawn Robbins
(For the complete analysis, check out the full report in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.)
As we approach the holiday season, we anticipate a slight shift in our typical box office update schedule over the next couple of weeks. Our plan is to provide you with an update early next week just before Christmas, and then take a pause during New Year’s week, resuming our regular updates at the beginning of January.
Key Insights & Considerations:
The holiday season often introduces numerous variables that can complicate box office forecasts. This year, we are looking at a particularly packed slate of new movie releases, with seven films launching nationwide within just a week of each other. Because of this, we expect some fluctuations in performance, resulting in both potential hits and misses.
Cities along the coast are showing strong interest in Marty Supreme, but it's unclear how the film will resonate in other regions. One key factor contributing to its popularity seems to be Timothée Chalamet, whose charm particularly appeals to young audiences, especially women. This demographic connection may give Marty Supreme an edge over many other period sports dramas.
On the other hand, Anaconda presents a more complex scenario since its success will heavily depend on spontaneous ticket sales. As a PG-13 comedy featuring two well-known stars, it faces unique challenges. Meanwhile, Song Sung Blue also relies on its star power. However, being a feel-good, female-centered musical, it has the potential to stand out in the crowded market.
Looking ahead to January, we are excited to share our initial forecasts for Send Help, directed by Sam Raimi, and Shelter, featuring Jason Statham. Subscribers can also look forward to a sneak peek of Iron Lung, a film from YouTube sensation Markiplier, which is set to debut on January 30.
Six-Week Box Office Forecast Calendar (as of December 18, 2025)
(All opening ranges and predictions are exclusively available to paid subscribers of our Substack newsletter.)
| Release Date | Title | Distributor | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast | 5-Day (WTFSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
|--------------|-----------------------------------|--------------------------|--------------------------|--------------------------|------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------|
| 12/25/2025 | Anaconda (2025) | Sony Pictures | $11,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $11,500,000 | $40,000,000 | $69,000,000 | $48,000,000 | |
| 12/25/2025 | Marty Supreme (Expansion) | A24 | $10,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $36,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $48,000,000 | |
| 12/25/2025 | Song Sung Blue | Focus Features | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $38,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Greenland 2: Migration | Lionsgate | $11,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $26,500,000 | $43,000,000 | $32,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | I Was a Stranger (Expansion) | Angel Studios | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $8,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Primate | Paramount Pictures | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $16,300,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Soulm8te | Universal Pictures | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $14,000,000 | |
| 1/16/2026 | 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | Sony Pictures | $18,000,000 | $28,000,000 | $22,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $65,000,000 | $48,000,000 | |
| 1/16/2026 | Madagascar (20th Anniversary) | Universal Pictures | $500,000 | $2,500,000 | $500,000 | $750,000 | $5,000,000 | $750,000 | |
| 1/16/2026 | All You Need Is Kill | GKIDS | | | | | | | |
| 1/23/2026 | Clika | Sony Pictures | | | | | | | |
| 1/23/2026 | Mercy | Amazon MGM Studios | | | | | | | |
| 1/30/2026 | Send Help | Disney | | | | | | | |
| 1/30/2026 | Shelter | Black Bear | | | | | | | |
It's important to note that the forecasts and tracking figures outlined above reflect current trends and expectations ahead of the films' releases. These projections are not set in stone and may be adjusted as market conditions and other relevant factors evolve.
